Big Lies of Government Research Spending

"Big Science Lie" - NASP Advanced Materials - Published Opinion of Former Head of Lockheed Skunkworks and Personal Experiences

Former Lockheed Corporation Skunk Works director, Ben Rich, wrote in "Skunk Works" (1995 publication) that the combined NASP /Orient Express program outraged him. It was announced by the Regean Administration that the program would go to completion in 4 - 8 years.

Ben Rich states that he called the Presidential Science Advisor, Kenworth (?) and said:

"You'll be lucky to do it in 50 years. [the commercial Orient Express]" "The SR71 [Blackbird spy plane] had titanium available for the fuselage and skins. What will you use for the Orient Express?"

"We can't have that kind of technology ready by the middle of the damned 21st century and if you don't know that, you are in the wrong job."

Obviously, there was strong feeling expressed by someone with strong qualifications in advanced new types of aircraft. By the way, the NASP Program was cancelled between 4 and 8 years after start and there was no real chance that it would be built and flown soon.

I previously attended public briefings by the Rockwell Materials and Processes NASP project staff. They briefed the Titanium matrix composites work they had done as lightweight high temperature structure and skins for the NASP vehicle. It appears as if the more than four years of funding produced:

Clever, difficult and innovative prototype fabrication - breaking considerable new ground.

They made "large" components - literally full scale starting the real fabrication technology, not the usual subscale stuff.

The quantities made were just a few of each of about three large components (plus an unknown number of laboratory type items)

Some components were given full scale tests in environments roughly simulating what some aspects of NASP would require - these were special built test setups.

They did not generate a modern design technology base:

Simple laboratory loading allowable limits

Complex loading limits

Fatigue loading limits

Creep loading limits

High temperature allowables

stress

strain fatigue

creep combined

environmental exposure on stress, creep, ....

A system for establishing design allowables in general

Non destructive acceptance allowables

Repair and refurbishment techniques

Foreign body impact allowables and damage detection

It would appear as if there is 10 to 15 years more work required to bring any such new materials developed in NASP to an adequately mature state that we would build a general public "people rated" airframe from this.

In contrast to Ben Rick's claim of "being lucky to do it in 50 years" (after announced project start about 9 years ago), this clause could be modified to "you'd be lucky to do it in 20 to 30 years". However, what is involved is a very long stretch from the announced 4 to 8 years by the Presidential Science Advisor. The criticism of the science advisor is almost certainly valid - or the task never should have been processed by a Science man, rather than an Engineering man.

We are in the age of the "Large Project Science Lie" as a formal way of doing business.

Part of the lie to Congress is that there is no way to sell to Congress a long term expensive development. The interest usually can't be sustained.

Some of the other recent big lies are in, for example, the "War on Cancer" and the "AIDS Crisis". Numerous experts have always said that we didn't know enough to solve either cancer or AIDS. However, this makes little difference. We tell each other the lies of a relatively quick cure sure to be found mainly by throwing money and looking at the droppings of the scientific hoard which congregates.

I feel sure that the Apollo program was sold honestly overall. It did what they claimed it would and for somewhere around the cost they usually told leaders privately that it would cost. The Space Shuttle was quite less honest. It works sort of like they said it would except it costs far more and will last far less and can operate far less often. The NASP was a complete lie by comparison. It didn't fly and didn't even come close to being a "Taxi Queen" or a look and see "Hanger Queen".

In advanced materials, considerable knowledge as well as data needs to be acquired before the materials are used in life threatening complex applications. It is different from inventing a new material for a better baseball bat or fishing rod. For a baseball bat or fishing rod, the first customer failure doesn't mean billions of dollars and many lives lost.

It is different for a new airframe materials concept for something like the NASP /Orient Express. Here the materials not only have to be made cost effectively in complex shapes, they have to then be designed to be lightweight and withstand 1000 flights into space getting heated to 1500 degrees and shaken and shocked by engine vibrations and landing and exposed to chemically reactive hot air trying to burn and degrade the materials and also to be carrying your children safely around the world.

Apollo actually invented and used virtually no major NEW materials during its short design, development and deployment cycles. There was no time. Because of longer lead times started in Apollo days, several new materials were featured on the Space Shuttle.

New materials need long term technology pushes. New cures for difficult diseases also require long term technology pushes. Besides parts or drugs to be tried out, there is basic knowledge that needs to be generated. Once in a while we need near genius - in large quantities.

The slow acceptance of new and advanced composite materials on aircraft in the 1960 to 1995 time period is good background to ponder and understand. Some really excellent people could describe why the slow process was generally appropriate.

In this age of the "Big Science Lie" and the "Big Medical Lie", we need to find knowledgable and powerful long term champions for advanced materials and other critical technologies. With such champions, perhaps the technologists and managers could lie less, if at all. Most of the truth was told for the Apollo man to the moon project, less truth was told for the Space Shuttle, greater distortions permeated the Space Station, now basically dead, and the NASP /Orient Express was a really bold lie from start to finish. These lies cost us money, cost us opprotunity, discourage the voting and taxpaying public and ruin our once proud scientific and technical system. In the end, the Government , the science and technologists and the voters and taxpayers are lying and being lied to and this collection of lies will surely destroy what we once proudly had.

We should do difficult jobs the old fashioned way - understand the difficulty and cost and be committed to the job we start.