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Oceans Swell from Greenhouse Effect?

by Thomas H. Maugh II

New measurements reveal that the oceans are warming and rising about twice as rapidly as scientists had thought, strongly suggesting that greenhouse warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels has already begun, researchers said yesterday.

Satellite data indicate that the temperature of the Earth's oceans has been rising at a rate of nearly 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit through most of the 1980s, according to a report scheduled for publication today in the journal Nature.

"We may be just beginning to witness the onset of (greenhouse) warming" produced by the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, according to oceanographer Alan E. Strong of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration in Suitland, MD.

Coincidentally, Richard Peltier of the University of Toronto reported yesterday at an American Geophysical Union meeting in Snowbird, UT, that the level of the oceans is rising about one- twelfth of an inch per year -- an outcome of greenhouse warming that researchers have long predicted.

Combined with recently reported data that five of the hottest years in recorded history have occurred during the 1980s -- perhaps as a result of the greenhouse effect -- the new reports offer evidence that the Earth may already have entered a period of unprecedented heat.

"This is very important work," said glaciologist Richard Williams of the U.S. Geological Survey. "It has taken a long time to get people's attention, but it is happening now. I think you are going to see a lot more things beginning to surface as the recognition comes that we've got severe problems."

Monitoring ocean temperatures has been particularly difficult in the past because of the vastness of the oceans. Such measurements typically are provided by instruments on floating buoys and by ships traversing cargo routes, leaving large areas of the ocean unmonitored.

In contrast, satellite measurements, which are rapidly becoming the foremost way to monitor global change, cover virtually all areas of the globe and provide as many as 3 million observations per month. The satellite measurements are compared closely with measurements from buoys and ships to ensure accuracy of the data, Strong said.

Peltier told the geophysical meeting yesterday that his measurements yield an average increase in ocean level of about one-twelfth of an inch each year during the 1980s, about twice the rate scientists had previously estimated. He noted, however, that the measurements must be interpreted cautiously because there are very few tidal measurements in the southern hemisphere.

Most oceanographers agree that the level of the oceans has risen as much as 2 inches over the last century. Various projections of the increase that will result from greenhouse warming range from 10 feet to 25 feet by the end of the next century.

Some of that increase, perhaps as much as a third, is due to expansion of the oceans as they have warmed. Beyond that expansion, however, "the only obvious explanation" is melting of glaciers, particularly in Antarctica, Williams said.

 
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