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Intelligence and Your Adversaries
by F. C. Miller
"Intelligence and Your Adversaries"
By F. C. Miller
Director, Profiles Threat Assessment Group
Published 1994
When we speak before audiences of our colleagues, periodically
some well intentioned person will announce "Our department
doesn't use Intelligence!" Not only is such a statement hilariously
funny and embarrassing, it's sometimes quite dangerously true! The
honorable profession in which we are all associated colleagues,
absolutely mandates Intelligence Information as the backbone by
which the entire body can stand and succeed. When Intelligence
information is unavailable, withheld, deemed unimportant or
paranoia, your position has been seriously compromised, and
you've been stripped of the most basic and vital of all your
professional weapons. This is nowhere more dangerous than in the
months and years ahead, when police officers, military personnel
and other professional protectors discover that because they are
armed and have the ability to defend themselves and others, they
will be among the first in line scheduled for assassination. Make no
mistake however... your adversaries are using Intelligence! Not all
opponents are as inept or unprepared as we'd like to believe. If you
think that all the bad guys are nothing more than a loose assortment
of misfits running around your city, your country or around the
world just charged full of emotion and empty heads, think again. If
you think that all your adversaries are just common criminals, think
again. And if you think that none of your adversaries are skilled in
strategies, tactics, high tech and Intelligence Operations, you are
tragically mistaken! Your known opposition may be narco-
terrorists, eco-terrorists, extremists, kidnappers, stalkers, assassins,
guerrillas, political revolutionaries, criminal gangs, religious
fanatics, social activists, propagandists, separatists and/or religious
terrorists.
And while you're faced with every conceivable constraint
and difficulty, your adversaries are not only using higher powered weapons,
they're using Intelligence information! What's more, "the bad guys"
have really gone high tech! They're using FAX machines, radios,
portable computers and electronic bulletin boards. They're
communicating Intelligence Information, weapons deals, training
courses, smuggling routes, maps, photos, meetings, contacts,
safehavens, conferences - even instructions on how to use "manure"
in manufacturing explosives! From street criminals to international
terrorist organizations, it's absolutely insane suicide not to know
your adversaries and know about them well in advance, before you
can effectively be prepared.
The "Bad Guys" Aren't Behind the Times!
The emergence of western technologies has facilitated what's
commonly referred to as the shrinking of the globe. The ability to
communicate, negotiate and transport easily throughout the world
is considered a major boon to economies and diplomacies. But this
boon doesn't stop there. Opponents of every conceivable
description are systematically using many of the technologies of the
20th century to their own advantage. Nothing will have more deadly
impact on you or your professional responsibilities than being ill-
informed or uninformed about them, their skills, their abilities,
their patterns, their associates, their mentalities, their operations,
their intended victims, their protectors, their weapons and their
methods.
Intelligence Operations
The image conjured up by many people when you begin talking
about Intelligence Operations and Intelligence Gathering must be
one of midnight rendezvous under dim street lights, trench coats,
microphones hidden between silk sheets (or under the azaleas),
femme fatales and guys named Wolfgang or "Code name-Bogart."
Many conceptions come from images of sinister types cultivated in
movies having to do with cold wars, hot wars, secret agents and
international spies, images further enhanced by the written
adventures and the derring-do of outstanding field operatives. And
while there is truth in all this, there are also some misconceptions
which tend to make the less adventurous wince, and somehow
believe that "Intelligence" is a professional area limited only to
super heroes and super villains. "Intelligence" by its very name,
implies a concept not limited to the few who specialize in this
particular professional discipline. The fact of the matter is that no
matter which area called Intelligence Operations one is imagining,
your opposition uses every bone-weary, high risk, low risk, boring,
open, covert, and now high tech and networking measure available
to him and his assignments. And what he knows about his
opposition, should keep everyone awake at night and working
overtime.
Know Your Enemy
"Know your enemy" is a tried and true maxim. In his book "The
Minimanual Of The Urban Guerrilla", Carlos Marighella set his
strategy. Condensing from his book, you'll discover that many of
the points he makes require one thing in common -"Information."
- Do not incorrectly estimate the enemy.
- Know the state of mind or emotions of the enemy.
- Use the element of surprise.
- Have better knowledge of the terrain than your opponent, and use
that advantage.
- Have greater mobility and speed than the enemy.
- Take total command of the situation.
- Do not fail to plan, thus forcing yourselves to improvise. Sun Tzu
(about 2,400 years ago in ancient China) continues to be respected
as a philosopher of war and strategy. Throughout the years there
have been variations on his "Good Intelligence is the Prelude to
Victory." In his "Use of Spies" chapter, he talks of the
"foreknowledge" of generals which allows them to be victorious.
Excerpting: "This foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits,
nor from gods, nor by analogy with past events, nor by astrological
calculations. It must be obtained from men who know the enemy's
situation." It was Sun Tzu who said "Know your enemy and know
yourself, and you can fight a hundred battles without defeat." From
Carl von Clausewitz, Prussian war philosopher and Director of the
Military Academy in Berlin (1810-1830), we share the following:
"By the word 'information', we denote all the knowledge which we
have of the enemy and his country. Therefore in fact, the
foundation of all our ideas and actions." Your opposition uses
Intelligence Operations to their advantage in discovering a great
many things about their opponents -you! "How much do they
know? Are they infiltrated and weakened? What are their
communications systems? Do they have access to good Intelligence
Information? Are their abilities to fight back sufficiently hampered?
Are they knowledgeable, efficient, well disciplined, tough? Are
they predictable? Have they been sufficiently discredited? What's
the situation regarding their equipment, morale, supplies? Is their
leadership stupid, arrogant, collaborated, weak? Are they naive' and
poorly prepared? Have they been adequately lulled or cajoled into
lack of awareness? Will their usual supporters have the will,
courage, capability of assisting their efforts? What's their response
time? Who's their backup? Are their abilities to fire back
sufficiently hampered? Will their leaders react with force or
negotiation? Is their information coordinated?" Such Intelligence
information operations directed at you suggests smart strategies.
When any opponent has been regarded as the best, the toughest and
the most formidable in the world (that's you), it's just good strategy
on their part to employ a systematic understanding and weakening
of your position from all sides before testing, then engaging you in
confrontations. Question: What Next?
When asked about what new things are on the horizon, one must
stop for a moment to determine how much time is available to
answer.
Terrorists
The erroneous concept that terrorist activities are "down", or that
they will only happen somewhere else is for fairy tales, not reality.
The nebulous boundaries by which the term "terrorism" is defined
are obscured and absurd. Terrorist groups by whatever name they're
called and wherever they may be home based are alive and well,
currently engaged in recruiting, regrouping, reorganizing,
improving their training (including weapons, martial arts,
propaganda and high tech), salting, positioning and "networking"
with other groups. Don't anticipate "business as usual" with simple
street crime or dissidents. Emerging are new players, new high risk
takers, new financing, new motives, new targets and new weapons.
"Terrorists" are not few in number, nor are they just "somewhere
else". Since the definition of "terrorists" and "terrorism" varies
throughout the world, terrorists may be listed under less horrifying
and more typically "criminal" or "activist" titles, suggesting that
terrorism may not actually exist at all in in particular areas. This
erroneous perception is especially true within the United States.
The term "terrorists" has been widely perpetuated to suggest
perhaps only a handful of high profile, violent political criminals at
odds with some government in power, and that such "terrorists" are
political radicals who occasionally pull some hostile operation
involving the assassination of a V.I.P., or blowing up an airplane,
or grabbing a few hostages somewhere. The United States is
suffering from both skillfully engineered and self inflicted naivete'
with regard to such adversaries, neatly maneuvered into believing
that terrorism and terrorists are certainly not growing and spreading
in her own back yard. And surely terrorists are not "as worrisome"
as the local or national high crime rate in progress. The United
States is wrong on both counts. And the United States is not alone
in her naivete'. If you fail to discern through all the smoke screens,
you may find yourself sidetracked over "crime" or "activists"
problems, and be in for a rude awakening when you discover that
many criminal or activist situations are in fact, "terrorist" related
and associated. One of the most valuable pieces of Intelligence
Information the opposition has is that they and their agendas have
not been clearly identified and may not be identified until it's too
late!
Too Little Information Is A Dangerous Thing
The names may change, but the game is the same. Anticipating the
emergence of a charismatic new Fuhrer, skinhead, Aryan and other
neo-Nazi groups are (once again) programmed and operational as
terrorists - positioned worldwide. "Fundamentalist" terrorists
(positioned worldwide) are fired up to hatred driven violence
against whomever and whatever gets in the way of their anti-
American/anti-Jewish power bloc. Under their religious zealots,
enemies are Satan or the physical offspring of Satan, therefore no
heinous violence is unjustified, and death for their cause is a
welcome promise of "glorious martyrdom." "Separatists"
(positioned worldwide) come in many forms and are known by
many names, violently dividing and scheming according their own
particular agendas. One must never mistake them as nothing to
worry about. Quite the contrary. Each group has its own timetable,
and when they feel they are in the best position to attack - will
attack. What lies ahead is already growing like wild fire. While
others are systematically blind-sided, terrorists from many groups
are preparing and will move ahead, fired by whatever ravaging
motives drive them. The many groups in operation and networking
within the United States have included within their agendas how to
first weaken, who will be targeted, how the American pie will be
carved up, and who gets which piece. While criminal gangs and
terrorists from around the world hold low profile "summit
conferences" in your neighboring county, while Moammar Gadhafi
smartly dons his new role as the gracious host of international
terrorist groups, while Middle east voices at home and abroad
openly announce their violent hatred of Americans and threaten
that they're capable of "taking their revenge" in America, and
Europe... and "all over," while America's borders continue to be
open unchallenged to strangers, while children of foreign and local
groups are being trained to hate, assassinate and detonate, while we
fail to know the difference between retreating or regrouping, while
media continues to direct our attentions to the terrorists "luxurious
hot tubs" - and away from their high tech computers, and while
adversaries continue to stockpile zealot ambitions and weapons -
John Q. Citizen is fighting for his right to have and carry arms and
professional protectors are fighting for access to good Intelligence
information. The price of failure will be very high. When society
reads to it's horror that some prominent person was killed when an
explosion took out his car, his bodyguard and half his entourage,
media habitually tends to mention that "such and such" terrorist
group "claimed responsibility" for the attack and provides the
"fatalities" scores... just before proceeding on to the days sports
scores. What in the name of all that's Holy would happen if the
"smoke and mirrors" were removed? For example, it would be to
your advantage to know that this particular terrorist group has cells
networked throughout forty major areas of the world including four
in your own backyard, that one of the leaders of this group is
operating on the west coast, another is operating on the east coast,
that their members are networking with certain "activist" groups in
your area, that this was the first "remote" detonated explosive in
that particular vicinity, that the target in question is another high
profile type with predictable patterns and travel routes, that the
resultant "collateral damage" affected the geographical location of
the civil headquarters, that a second, timed explosive detonated
thirty minutes later outside the emergency entrance of the only
hospital in the area - killing all the wounded personnel who
dragged themselves there for medical assistance. When prominent
executives are kidnapped, when corporate facilities are attacked,
when famous tourist sites become rubble, when politicos and civic
leaders are assassinated, when civil professionals are attacked,
when the World Trade Center in New York is targeted - there are
people, motives, strategies, tactics and Intelligence Operations on
the move behind those assaults.
Why We're Vulnerable to Terrorists
Why any community, corporation or nation is vulnerable to
terrorists and terrorism emanates less from the intrigue of the
opposition than from our own failures. When the ignorant among
us refute the admonitions of those who suggest we should be
grabbing up all the Intelligence Information we can, we lose. When
the arrogant among us compete for self glorification at the expense
of sharing vital information and cooperation with other agencies or
departments, we lose. When middle management in all sectors is at
an all time low, we lose. When we fail to discern vested interests,
hidden agendas and Madison Avenue type maneuvering, we lose.
When we fail to turn our Intelligence efforts not only outward but
closer inward, we lose. When we in our conceits prefer to be big
frogs in little ponds rather than join in professional espirit d' corps,
we lose. When we don't know the difference between "dial a
disaster/dial a weather report" and Intelligence Information, we
lose. When we fail to discern between misinformation and
disinformation, we lose. When we're cleverly steered to focus more
on the daily ball scores than "knowing the score", we lose. We
continually hear of stats and budgets and "innovative new
programs" to deal with crime and terrorists. It makes interesting
reading and is duly logged. Then it goes into the G.I.G.O. file.
(Garbage in, garbage out!) No more than any gun is responsible for
crime, all the draining "innovative new programs" in the world will
not accomplish so well in our behalf as the responsibility of first
noting and dealing with those who ridicule logic, those who
advance basic propaganda over basic principles, those who provide
stumbling blocks, and those who downplay the insidious and
promote the absurd. I was very impressed with reading "Trends in
Domestic Terrorism" in the Fall 1992 & Winter 1993 issues of
Tactical Response Magazine, (excellent articles by Arthur E.
Gerringer!) He talked about attempting to track information on
some group a few years ago and had occasion to speak to the Chief
of Intelligence division of a state police agency. Excerpting Mr.
Gerringer: "When I requested the information, I was told that 'while
we know of such groups, we only collect intelligence on known
criminals.' The absurdity of that statement is self evident." (end
excerpt.) Continuing on that same line, may I share our own story
of the corporate C.E.O. who after being advised of the
vulnerabilities of his corporation, assured us that he had "a plan!"
And with that, actually waved an insurance policy in the air. "The
plan" was to get the Insurance Company to pick up the tab for the
corporation's failures. It will hit the fan when the Insurance
Industry finally discovers how badly they're being taken to the
cleaners by clients who resist legitimate, non-vested interest
Intelligence Information, Risk & Threat Analysis, preventive or
proactive measures. And it will hit the fan when company
employees and stockholders discover "decision makers" who
deliberately jeopardized them. One of my other favorite stories
involves a well known major corporation and the struggle from
within to counsel and protect the decision makers at the top whose
personal and corporate vulnerabilities are too numerous to ignore.
Systematically, honorable men and women have been harassed,
threatened, actually forbidden to communicate, and some of them
have ultimately been driven out by power players, leaving not only
the executives at the top in danger, but everyone connected to the
organization. The absurdities, dangerous power playing,
irresponsibilities and hidden agendas of which some of us speak,
are not isolated to civil or corporate sectors, but permeates societies
throughout the world. Intelligence work is hard work, and it isn't
for neophytes. An Intelligence Operation is tasked with locating
information on real and/or potential situations, tasked with locating
patterns which may already exist or be emerging, then assessing the
Risk and Threat factors and providing such information to the
Operations people or other decision makers whereby measures may
be put into place for dealing with them. Intelligence is the "skilled"
art of searching outward, ahead of, behind, over, within and all
around the principal, whether the "principal" is an executive, a
corporation, sites, facilities, a community, a V.I.P., a private client
or a nation. A skilled Intelligence person is part researcher,
investigator, historian, observer, strategist, tactician, warrior,
scientist, navigator, bodyguard, listener, reader, map-maker and
puzzle-maker. He must be politically astute, historically grounded,
and not prone to propaganda. He must be a tactician, experienced,
disciplined, attentive to details and savvy. He must be able to detect
flaws in the system, dangers in the destination, risks, elevating or
declining threat levels, smoke screens, strengths, weaknesses and
hidden agendas. He is the person who skillfully knows and assesses
the whole forest, not just an occasional tree. If there's one thing we
can't afford, it's surprises. "Blind man's bluff" is a game for kids,
not for professionals. Acquiring Information when it's too late is
deadly. To fall in the line of duty is one thing, but to fail for lack of
Information is unacceptable! Investigators, consultants, executive
protection specialists, tactical personnel, police officers, operations
personnel, emergency coordinators and security specialists are my
clients. By providing the information they request, by providing
information they never dreamed they could find, and by providing
the cooperation they deserve, these honorable men and women
don't have to play that game! Professionals must always "know the
enemy", whomever, whatever and wherever that enemy may be. The
well intentioned fellow who says "Our department doesn't use
Intelligence" tells me that while not using it, they're actually
providing volumes of Intelligence information regarding their
organization. Never forget ... "With information comes knowledge,
and with knowledge - the ability to plan more successful
countermeasures and proactive strategies!"
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