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Intelligence and Your Adversaries

by F. C. Miller

"Intelligence and Your Adversaries"

By F. C. Miller

Director, Profiles Threat Assessment Group

Published 1994

When we speak before audiences of our colleagues, periodically some well intentioned person will announce "Our department doesn't use Intelligence!" Not only is such a statement hilariously funny and embarrassing, it's sometimes quite dangerously true! The honorable profession in which we are all associated colleagues, absolutely mandates Intelligence Information as the backbone by which the entire body can stand and succeed. When Intelligence information is unavailable, withheld, deemed unimportant or paranoia, your position has been seriously compromised, and you've been stripped of the most basic and vital of all your professional weapons. This is nowhere more dangerous than in the months and years ahead, when police officers, military personnel and other professional protectors discover that because they are armed and have the ability to defend themselves and others, they will be among the first in line scheduled for assassination. Make no mistake however... your adversaries are using Intelligence! Not all opponents are as inept or unprepared as we'd like to believe. If you think that all the bad guys are nothing more than a loose assortment of misfits running around your city, your country or around the world just charged full of emotion and empty heads, think again. If you think that all your adversaries are just common criminals, think again. And if you think that none of your adversaries are skilled in strategies, tactics, high tech and Intelligence Operations, you are tragically mistaken! Your known opposition may be narco- terrorists, eco-terrorists, extremists, kidnappers, stalkers, assassins, guerrillas, political revolutionaries, criminal gangs, religious fanatics, social activists, propagandists, separatists and/or religious terrorists.

And while you're faced with every conceivable constraint and difficulty, your adversaries are not only using higher powered weapons, they're using Intelligence information! What's more, "the bad guys" have really gone high tech! They're using FAX machines, radios, portable computers and electronic bulletin boards. They're communicating Intelligence Information, weapons deals, training courses, smuggling routes, maps, photos, meetings, contacts, safehavens, conferences - even instructions on how to use "manure" in manufacturing explosives! From street criminals to international terrorist organizations, it's absolutely insane suicide not to know your adversaries and know about them well in advance, before you can effectively be prepared.

The "Bad Guys" Aren't Behind the Times! The emergence of western technologies has facilitated what's commonly referred to as the shrinking of the globe. The ability to communicate, negotiate and transport easily throughout the world is considered a major boon to economies and diplomacies. But this boon doesn't stop there. Opponents of every conceivable description are systematically using many of the technologies of the 20th century to their own advantage. Nothing will have more deadly impact on you or your professional responsibilities than being ill- informed or uninformed about them, their skills, their abilities, their patterns, their associates, their mentalities, their operations, their intended victims, their protectors, their weapons and their methods.

Intelligence Operations

The image conjured up by many people when you begin talking about Intelligence Operations and Intelligence Gathering must be one of midnight rendezvous under dim street lights, trench coats, microphones hidden between silk sheets (or under the azaleas), femme fatales and guys named Wolfgang or "Code name-Bogart." Many conceptions come from images of sinister types cultivated in movies having to do with cold wars, hot wars, secret agents and international spies, images further enhanced by the written adventures and the derring-do of outstanding field operatives. And while there is truth in all this, there are also some misconceptions which tend to make the less adventurous wince, and somehow believe that "Intelligence" is a professional area limited only to super heroes and super villains. "Intelligence" by its very name, implies a concept not limited to the few who specialize in this particular professional discipline. The fact of the matter is that no matter which area called Intelligence Operations one is imagining, your opposition uses every bone-weary, high risk, low risk, boring, open, covert, and now high tech and networking measure available to him and his assignments. And what he knows about his opposition, should keep everyone awake at night and working overtime.

Know Your Enemy

"Know your enemy" is a tried and true maxim. In his book "The Minimanual Of The Urban Guerrilla", Carlos Marighella set his strategy. Condensing from his book, you'll discover that many of the points he makes require one thing in common -"Information."

- Do not incorrectly estimate the enemy.

- Know the state of mind or emotions of the enemy.

- Use the element of surprise.

- Have better knowledge of the terrain than your opponent, and use that advantage.

- Have greater mobility and speed than the enemy.

- Take total command of the situation.

- Do not fail to plan, thus forcing yourselves to improvise. Sun Tzu (about 2,400 years ago in ancient China) continues to be respected as a philosopher of war and strategy. Throughout the years there have been variations on his "Good Intelligence is the Prelude to Victory." In his "Use of Spies" chapter, he talks of the "foreknowledge" of generals which allows them to be victorious. Excerpting: "This foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits, nor from gods, nor by analogy with past events, nor by astrological calculations. It must be obtained from men who know the enemy's situation." It was Sun Tzu who said "Know your enemy and know yourself, and you can fight a hundred battles without defeat." From Carl von Clausewitz, Prussian war philosopher and Director of the Military Academy in Berlin (1810-1830), we share the following: "By the word 'information', we denote all the knowledge which we have of the enemy and his country. Therefore in fact, the foundation of all our ideas and actions." Your opposition uses Intelligence Operations to their advantage in discovering a great many things about their opponents -you! "How much do they know? Are they infiltrated and weakened? What are their communications systems? Do they have access to good Intelligence Information? Are their abilities to fight back sufficiently hampered? Are they knowledgeable, efficient, well disciplined, tough? Are they predictable? Have they been sufficiently discredited? What's the situation regarding their equipment, morale, supplies? Is their leadership stupid, arrogant, collaborated, weak? Are they naive' and poorly prepared? Have they been adequately lulled or cajoled into lack of awareness? Will their usual supporters have the will, courage, capability of assisting their efforts? What's their response time? Who's their backup? Are their abilities to fire back sufficiently hampered? Will their leaders react with force or negotiation? Is their information coordinated?" Such Intelligence information operations directed at you suggests smart strategies. When any opponent has been regarded as the best, the toughest and the most formidable in the world (that's you), it's just good strategy on their part to employ a systematic understanding and weakening of your position from all sides before testing, then engaging you in confrontations. Question: What Next? When asked about what new things are on the horizon, one must stop for a moment to determine how much time is available to answer.

Terrorists

The erroneous concept that terrorist activities are "down", or that they will only happen somewhere else is for fairy tales, not reality. The nebulous boundaries by which the term "terrorism" is defined are obscured and absurd. Terrorist groups by whatever name they're called and wherever they may be home based are alive and well, currently engaged in recruiting, regrouping, reorganizing, improving their training (including weapons, martial arts, propaganda and high tech), salting, positioning and "networking" with other groups. Don't anticipate "business as usual" with simple street crime or dissidents. Emerging are new players, new high risk takers, new financing, new motives, new targets and new weapons. "Terrorists" are not few in number, nor are they just "somewhere else". Since the definition of "terrorists" and "terrorism" varies throughout the world, terrorists may be listed under less horrifying and more typically "criminal" or "activist" titles, suggesting that terrorism may not actually exist at all in in particular areas. This erroneous perception is especially true within the United States. The term "terrorists" has been widely perpetuated to suggest perhaps only a handful of high profile, violent political criminals at odds with some government in power, and that such "terrorists" are political radicals who occasionally pull some hostile operation involving the assassination of a V.I.P., or blowing up an airplane, or grabbing a few hostages somewhere. The United States is suffering from both skillfully engineered and self inflicted naivete' with regard to such adversaries, neatly maneuvered into believing that terrorism and terrorists are certainly not growing and spreading in her own back yard. And surely terrorists are not "as worrisome" as the local or national high crime rate in progress. The United States is wrong on both counts. And the United States is not alone in her naivete'. If you fail to discern through all the smoke screens, you may find yourself sidetracked over "crime" or "activists" problems, and be in for a rude awakening when you discover that many criminal or activist situations are in fact, "terrorist" related and associated. One of the most valuable pieces of Intelligence Information the opposition has is that they and their agendas have not been clearly identified and may not be identified until it's too late!

Too Little Information Is A Dangerous Thing

The names may change, but the game is the same. Anticipating the emergence of a charismatic new Fuhrer, skinhead, Aryan and other neo-Nazi groups are (once again) programmed and operational as terrorists - positioned worldwide. "Fundamentalist" terrorists (positioned worldwide) are fired up to hatred driven violence against whomever and whatever gets in the way of their anti- American/anti-Jewish power bloc. Under their religious zealots, enemies are Satan or the physical offspring of Satan, therefore no heinous violence is unjustified, and death for their cause is a welcome promise of "glorious martyrdom." "Separatists" (positioned worldwide) come in many forms and are known by many names, violently dividing and scheming according their own particular agendas. One must never mistake them as nothing to worry about. Quite the contrary. Each group has its own timetable, and when they feel they are in the best position to attack - will attack. What lies ahead is already growing like wild fire. While others are systematically blind-sided, terrorists from many groups are preparing and will move ahead, fired by whatever ravaging motives drive them. The many groups in operation and networking within the United States have included within their agendas how to first weaken, who will be targeted, how the American pie will be carved up, and who gets which piece. While criminal gangs and terrorists from around the world hold low profile "summit conferences" in your neighboring county, while Moammar Gadhafi smartly dons his new role as the gracious host of international terrorist groups, while Middle east voices at home and abroad openly announce their violent hatred of Americans and threaten that they're capable of "taking their revenge" in America, and Europe... and "all over," while America's borders continue to be open unchallenged to strangers, while children of foreign and local groups are being trained to hate, assassinate and detonate, while we fail to know the difference between retreating or regrouping, while media continues to direct our attentions to the terrorists "luxurious hot tubs" - and away from their high tech computers, and while adversaries continue to stockpile zealot ambitions and weapons - John Q. Citizen is fighting for his right to have and carry arms and professional protectors are fighting for access to good Intelligence information. The price of failure will be very high. When society reads to it's horror that some prominent person was killed when an explosion took out his car, his bodyguard and half his entourage, media habitually tends to mention that "such and such" terrorist group "claimed responsibility" for the attack and provides the "fatalities" scores... just before proceeding on to the days sports scores. What in the name of all that's Holy would happen if the "smoke and mirrors" were removed? For example, it would be to your advantage to know that this particular terrorist group has cells networked throughout forty major areas of the world including four in your own backyard, that one of the leaders of this group is operating on the west coast, another is operating on the east coast, that their members are networking with certain "activist" groups in your area, that this was the first "remote" detonated explosive in that particular vicinity, that the target in question is another high profile type with predictable patterns and travel routes, that the resultant "collateral damage" affected the geographical location of the civil headquarters, that a second, timed explosive detonated thirty minutes later outside the emergency entrance of the only hospital in the area - killing all the wounded personnel who dragged themselves there for medical assistance. When prominent executives are kidnapped, when corporate facilities are attacked, when famous tourist sites become rubble, when politicos and civic leaders are assassinated, when civil professionals are attacked, when the World Trade Center in New York is targeted - there are people, motives, strategies, tactics and Intelligence Operations on the move behind those assaults.

Why We're Vulnerable to Terrorists

Why any community, corporation or nation is vulnerable to terrorists and terrorism emanates less from the intrigue of the opposition than from our own failures. When the ignorant among us refute the admonitions of those who suggest we should be grabbing up all the Intelligence Information we can, we lose. When the arrogant among us compete for self glorification at the expense of sharing vital information and cooperation with other agencies or departments, we lose. When middle management in all sectors is at an all time low, we lose. When we fail to discern vested interests, hidden agendas and Madison Avenue type maneuvering, we lose. When we fail to turn our Intelligence efforts not only outward but closer inward, we lose. When we in our conceits prefer to be big frogs in little ponds rather than join in professional espirit d' corps, we lose. When we don't know the difference between "dial a disaster/dial a weather report" and Intelligence Information, we lose. When we fail to discern between misinformation and disinformation, we lose. When we're cleverly steered to focus more on the daily ball scores than "knowing the score", we lose. We continually hear of stats and budgets and "innovative new programs" to deal with crime and terrorists. It makes interesting reading and is duly logged. Then it goes into the G.I.G.O. file. (Garbage in, garbage out!) No more than any gun is responsible for crime, all the draining "innovative new programs" in the world will not accomplish so well in our behalf as the responsibility of first noting and dealing with those who ridicule logic, those who advance basic propaganda over basic principles, those who provide stumbling blocks, and those who downplay the insidious and promote the absurd. I was very impressed with reading "Trends in Domestic Terrorism" in the Fall 1992 & Winter 1993 issues of Tactical Response Magazine, (excellent articles by Arthur E. Gerringer!) He talked about attempting to track information on some group a few years ago and had occasion to speak to the Chief of Intelligence division of a state police agency. Excerpting Mr. Gerringer: "When I requested the information, I was told that 'while we know of such groups, we only collect intelligence on known criminals.' The absurdity of that statement is self evident." (end excerpt.) Continuing on that same line, may I share our own story of the corporate C.E.O. who after being advised of the vulnerabilities of his corporation, assured us that he had "a plan!" And with that, actually waved an insurance policy in the air. "The plan" was to get the Insurance Company to pick up the tab for the corporation's failures. It will hit the fan when the Insurance Industry finally discovers how badly they're being taken to the cleaners by clients who resist legitimate, non-vested interest Intelligence Information, Risk & Threat Analysis, preventive or proactive measures. And it will hit the fan when company employees and stockholders discover "decision makers" who deliberately jeopardized them. One of my other favorite stories involves a well known major corporation and the struggle from within to counsel and protect the decision makers at the top whose personal and corporate vulnerabilities are too numerous to ignore. Systematically, honorable men and women have been harassed, threatened, actually forbidden to communicate, and some of them have ultimately been driven out by power players, leaving not only the executives at the top in danger, but everyone connected to the organization. The absurdities, dangerous power playing, irresponsibilities and hidden agendas of which some of us speak, are not isolated to civil or corporate sectors, but permeates societies throughout the world. Intelligence work is hard work, and it isn't for neophytes. An Intelligence Operation is tasked with locating information on real and/or potential situations, tasked with locating patterns which may already exist or be emerging, then assessing the Risk and Threat factors and providing such information to the Operations people or other decision makers whereby measures may be put into place for dealing with them. Intelligence is the "skilled" art of searching outward, ahead of, behind, over, within and all around the principal, whether the "principal" is an executive, a corporation, sites, facilities, a community, a V.I.P., a private client or a nation. A skilled Intelligence person is part researcher, investigator, historian, observer, strategist, tactician, warrior, scientist, navigator, bodyguard, listener, reader, map-maker and puzzle-maker. He must be politically astute, historically grounded, and not prone to propaganda. He must be a tactician, experienced, disciplined, attentive to details and savvy. He must be able to detect flaws in the system, dangers in the destination, risks, elevating or declining threat levels, smoke screens, strengths, weaknesses and hidden agendas. He is the person who skillfully knows and assesses the whole forest, not just an occasional tree. If there's one thing we can't afford, it's surprises. "Blind man's bluff" is a game for kids, not for professionals. Acquiring Information when it's too late is deadly. To fall in the line of duty is one thing, but to fail for lack of Information is unacceptable! Investigators, consultants, executive protection specialists, tactical personnel, police officers, operations personnel, emergency coordinators and security specialists are my clients. By providing the information they request, by providing information they never dreamed they could find, and by providing the cooperation they deserve, these honorable men and women don't have to play that game! Professionals must always "know the enemy", whomever, whatever and wherever that enemy may be. The well intentioned fellow who says "Our department doesn't use Intelligence" tells me that while not using it, they're actually providing volumes of Intelligence information regarding their organization. Never forget ... "With information comes knowledge, and with knowledge - the ability to plan more successful countermeasures and proactive strategies!"

 
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